Maths · 19 Oct 2026 · 4 min read
Losing streak probability: 8 losses in a row is 49%
A 45% trader over 180 trades meets 8 losses in a row 49.2% of the time. Size so that streak does not end the account.
St. Joseph Desk · free morning letter
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Sizing · 18 Oct 2026 · 6 min read
Most prop firm challenges are decided by risk per trade
We simulated 4,000 challenges at nine risk sizes. The same trader passes 86% of the time at one size and 41% at another.
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